The war in the Middle East is driving up kerosene prices and flight costs. If you want to go on vacation in the summer and haven’t booked your flight yet, you’re faced with the question: book now or is it better to wait a few weeks?
There is still no end to the conflict in Iran in sight. The ongoing war is not only putting politics into a state of emergency.
Currently, developments continue to make traveling to the Gulf regions difficult. The Foreign Office issued a comprehensive travel warning. But also those Prices for plane tickets to other regions are skyrocketing. Anyone who wants to go to Asia or Australia now or in the summer will probably have to pay significantly more.
Price development of airline tickets: The current situation
Travelers should currently avoid changing planes at Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi airports. Direct flights are an alternative, but prices are skyrocketing.
Current maximum prices
(As of March 9, 2026)
- Frankfurt to Bangkok: up to 1,468 euros (Thai Airways)
- Berlin to Beijing: up to 2,442 euros (Lufthansa)
- Frankfurt to Tokyo: up to 3,040 euros
The airports are also suitable for trips to Australia or New Zealand, for which there are no direct flights in Germany Gulf states an important hub. Some airlines switch to other stopovers, but these routes are also expensive. Flights to Sydney with a change in Singapore or Hong Kong currently cost over 2,900 euros.
The price of oil means expensive flight tickets
Crude oil is the most important raw material for the production of kerosene. No other external factor has such a strong impact on airline operating costs. Since the beginning of the war, oil supplies in the Gulf region, one of the key suppliers, have been almost at a standstill. The price of oil has therefore shot up in the last few hours over $100 per barrel – There is no relaxation in sight.
Experts note that with an increase in oil and kerosene prices, airline operators the transfer higher costs to ticket prices in the medium term. Due to the partial closure of the airspace in the region, many airlines also have to fly detours. This has a double burden: more kerosene consumption and higher prices at the same time.
How airlines allocate costs
In addition, according to experts, investors are encouraging airlines to increase ticket prices in times of high kerosene costs. At the same time the number of flights offered decreases and airlines delete cheap price ranges. Expensive ticket prices are the result of such decisions.
Should vacationers wait now?
The geopolitical events do not give hope for a quick easing of the situation. Anyone who absolutely has to travel in the coming weeks or would like to, should look for alternative transfer locations. But one thing is clear: in the next few Air travelers have to dig deeper into their wallets for four to eight weeks.
Summer vacationers should not hope to be able to ride out the tense price situation. The longer you wait, the more expensive the ticket becomes. Aviation expert Carsten Benz also confirms this T Online.
Search for warm travel destinations in Autumn or winterit might be worth the wait. If the conflict in Iran ends in the coming weeks, the airlines will certainly offer the cheapest seat price classes. When that will happen remains uncertain.
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