When it comes to a heat pump, many people initially only look at the price on offer. But when it comes to heating systems, the conversion and, above all, the operating costs count over 15 to 20 years. Heat pump specialist Jan Ossenbrink does the real cost check.
When homeowners plan a new heating system, something very human happens: they first look at the amount at the bottom of the offer. However, with a heater you are not making a decision for one winter, but for decades. Over 15 to 20 years, the purchase price is only part of the truth: What really matters is the total cost – i.e. the conversion in the house plus the operating costs year after year. This is exactly what I’m taking a closer look at in this reality check.
With a heat pump, the bill doesn’t end with the price of the device: planning, dismantling and disposal of the old system (including tank for oil, including gas meter and sometimes connection for gas) are just as important as storage, pumps, piping, control and integration into the house’s energy system (solar, battery, wallbox). As a rule, adjustments are also made to the building – for example to the foundation, the cable routes or work on the power connection and meter cabinet.
This is exactly where the big differences between the projects arise: not because planning a heat pump is “unpredictable”, but rather because houses are different. This is also the reason why the price range when researching a heat pump offer is often very large and clever providers like to intentionally leave things out first and then reprice them as the project progresses.
Operating costs: What counts for all heating systems over the years
They are just as relevant as the purchase costs of a heater ongoing costs over the lifespan: energy sources (electricity or gas or oil), maintenance, repairs and, in the case of fossil heating systems, often additionally chimney sweeps. A fair comparison therefore always considers investment and operation together.
One factor in particular is taken into account too late in many calculations, even though it works every year: the CO₂ costs. Fossil fuels have been receiving a price premium in Germany since 2021 due to CO₂ pricing. In 2026, this will be in a corridor of €55 to €65 per tonne in the national system. This already increases the price per liter of heating oil from around 12 cents (as of 2024) to up to around 17 cents. Natural gas typically increases in price from around 0.8 to around 1.2 cents/kWh.
For an average household with 150 m² of living space and gas heating, this is roughly dependent on consumption €250 additional costs in the year. With an oil heating system, depending on consumption, you can quickly add up to several hundred euros a year just for the CO₂ tax.
Translated, this means: fossil fuel heating receives a systematic cost premium – and the switch to European emissions trading (ETS 2) means that CO₂ prices can be expected to fluctuate more strongly and tend to rise in the coming years. Many experts are predicting a price premium of more than €100/ton in the near future and a doubling or tripling in the 2030s.
Dr. Jan Ossenbrink is a heat transition expert, electrical engineer and energy economist as well as CEO of Vamo. He is part of us EXPERTS Circle. The content represents his personal opinion based on his individual expertise.
Support is helpful – but it requires planning
Funding can make it easier to get started. There are currently subsidies for heat pumps available through KfW – up to 70 percent of the eligible costs, depending on the requirements. At the same time, funding needs a reliable path. In the future, the heat pump must prevail over oil and gas even without subsidies. However, an abrupt end or sharp jumps would cause strong fluctuations in demand: first a flash in the pan, then a standstill. A predictable, continuous decline in funding to zero by 2030 would make sense.
The core question is: Is the system sustainable even without subsidies? The short answer: Yes, but not automatically. Due to the extremely high efficiency of the technology and the resulting low operating costs, a heat pump recoups the higher purchase costs over the years, even without subsidies. How quickly depends on the building and consumption, the ratio of electricity to gas prices, the efficiency of the system, the development of CO₂ costs and, crucially, the quality of planning and operation. This is exactly why operational optimization is so important: Anyone who gives away efficiency pays more year after year.
Why planning, design and operation determine costs
In practice we see that those who save at the beginning often end up paying more in the end. A well-planned, cleanly installed and professionally adjusted heat pump system with high-quality components delivers measurable savings from day one – over many years and decades.
Regular maintenance and cleaning increases the service life and prevents failures. Remote monitoring detects the first signs of errors before they lead to problems and optimizes the efficiency of the largest energy consumer in the house during the operating phase. Valuable conclusions about further optimization can be drawn, especially from the data from the first two years of operation.
Milkmaid calculations and rules of thumb don’t help when it comes to investment decisions costing several thousand euros and unfortunately, many energy-saving measures such as replacing windows and insulating facades are almost never profitable. That’s exactly why we at Vamo rely on standardized planning, clean commissioning and ongoing operational support as well as the Vamo Care service model with a warranty extension of up to 20 years.
The sentence that matters
The debate about the cost of a heat pump is often misplaced. Yes, the heat pump is more expensive to purchase than a 1:1 replacement for an oil or gas heater. But about half of the costs are the one-off upgrades to the building (e.g. foundation, ground wire, meter cabinet) and are one Investment in the property.
In most cases, this has to happen at some point anyway, as there is no sensible alternative to the heat pump, because district heating is not being developed outside metropolitan areas in cities and no one in the world will burn hydrogen – the champagne of energy sources – in a heating system.
A change of perspective helps with the heat pump decision
A change of perspective can help here: consider your heat pump project in two parts. First, the one-off expense for changing technology and modernizing your home. This includes dismantling the old system, the meter cabinet, new pipes or the foundation. These costs essentially only occur once.
The second part is the heat pump itself and its peripherals, i.e. what will be much easier to replace in 20 years if in doubt. If you clearly separate these areas, it becomes clear: the real work lies in the one-time switch to a future-proof system. The technology itself remains flexible and can be replaced much more easily later.
The most important points are simple: Calculate the term instead of the purchase price. Consider CO₂ costs as a structural price driver for gas and oil. And don’t underestimate the biggest lever: planning, design and the right setting decide whether a heat pump runs economically or causes unnecessarily high costs.
A heat pump is an investment that goes without saying. It is the logical decision for your home and only becomes expensive if it is poorly planned or operated incorrectly.
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